In this example the random experiment consists of flipping three fair coins.
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Stanislaw Ulam had the idea of using random experiments.
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She therefore conceives of the following random experiment.
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That's because the only two remaining outcomes for this random experiment are:
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To apply the method of conditional probabilities, first model the random experiment as a sequence of small random steps.
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But in a random experiment, the probability of being horizontally polarized is, and the probability of being vertically polarized is.
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It is of course impossible to actually perform an infinity of repetitions of a random experiment to determine the probability of an event.
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But some important random experiments, such as tossing a coin until it rises heads, give rise to an infinite set of outcomes.
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With this mode of convergence, we increasingly expect to see the next outcome in a sequence of random experiments becoming better and better modeled by a given probability distribution.
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Rather than actually carry out, and possibly have to repeat, the rather long random experiment, the protagonist decides to simply calculate and use the most probable result.
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